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2026-06-11

Forecast, commit, promise - stop mixing them up

Forecasting is NOT committing.
Committing is NOT promising.

But somehow, every date we give can be reused against us.

"You PROMISED it would be delivered next Sprint"
"No Bob, we didn't"

Interruptions, new priorities, fires to take care of are a thing, and the flexibility enabled by agility is a response to that. But try pushing something past its forecasted date... 😬

So teams learn the lesson: don't forecast, and you can't be trapped.

Lately I've had a lot of conversations where the words "Forecast", "Commitment" and "Promise" are used interchangeably and it often sends the wrong message.

→ Clarify (and make sure) that it's OK for a roadmap to change based on shifting priorities and new discoveries. It's the best way to ease the pressure on teams when the unexpected happens (and the unexpected always happens 😄)
→ Keep a buffer for interruptions: I've seen teams spending 30% of their time on "unexpected work" while still completely filling their capacity at Sprint Planning. You know what's going to happen, even if you don't know yet how it's going to happen. So make room for it proactively 😊

How does your team deal with shifting priorities? 💁🏻‍♂️

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erik collard linkedin forecasting vs committing agile project management
TOP COMMENTS

I'm guessing since you said "sprint" that you're doing Scrum, and if you're doing Scrum, then the team only commits to Sprint Goals, not specific deliverables. But, yeah, obviously a team can still fail to accomplish the Sprint Goal.

Philip

As a PM, I protect timeline predictions fiercely for exactly this reason. I want people to be able to predict without the worry that they're committing. I want a best guess without the fear.
It's hard to navigate and I don't get it wholly right.

Bronia

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